Guest Writer: Mattias Goldmann – COP27: It’s not about promises

Credible emissions reductions. Recent months have shown how the climate is already changing, with devastating flooding in Pakistan, fires in Australia and hurricanes in America. This increases the pressure for urgent action, in line with the IPCC estimatesthat emissions must fall by 45% by 2030 compared with 2010 levels and reach net zero by mid-century. Next year’s COP is a stocktaking year, so this year the world needs to agree on what is to be measured and achieved.

Fulfilled financing pledge. Figures for international climate funding are not up to date, but most likely they are decreasing as countries face a more challenging economy outlook. If developing countries do not believe that we will reach the promised USD 100 billion per year by 2023, as promised in last year’s COP, they may see little reason to start delivering on their NDC-promises – which also to a large degree are dependent on funding. This also has implications for the long-term climate funding target, which has to be much larger since the needs are increasing.

Leadership. In these trying times, there is an urgent demand for countries to step up and lead the way. Businesses have to a much larger extent done so, but the COP:s are country-driven. We all hope for a renewed climate alliance between the world’s two biggest economies and emitters, China and the US, but both tensions on Taiwan and the US mid-term elections render it close to wishful thinking. The EU increasingly sees the climate as its opportunity to be relevant, with its pledge to become the world’s first climate neutral region with a 55 % emissions reduction 1990-2030. Small countries like Sweden have in the past been important role-models for climate financing; if they backtrack, the whole system loses credibility. Countries suffering the most from climate-induced disasters such as Pakistan, Bangladesh and Australia with its new government in place, bring a much-needed sense of urgency to the negotiations. Last but not least, all eyes are on the Egypt chairmanship – which balance will it strike between catering to business-as-usual interests in the Arab world, and the need for this to be the Implementation COP?

COPs are supposed to last two working weeks, ending next Friday. It often takes a day or two more than that, which is fine if we find substantial agreement, such as in COP21 in Paris, but not if we remain in deadlock, as in COP25 in Madrid – the longest in history. So to all delegates: Take the time you need, but deliver. This summit must be the Implementation COP.

Mattias Goldmann