Good cop, bad cop? At half-time the jury is still out on COP27

After one week of negotiations, the jury is still out on whether this will be a Good Cop, like COP26 last year and COP21 that gave us the Paris Agreement, or a Bad Cop, like the 25th in Madrid or the COP15 in “Hopenhagen”. The bad news first: 

The climate targets from the COP21 Paris Agreement are at severe risk. We left COP26 with the “1.5 still alive” in our ears, but now more and more scientists agree that halting global warming to under 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels won’t happen. Even the lesser two-degree target is very much at risk, since the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) combined only reduces emissions to 2030 by a few percent compared to the halving every decade needed. Hopes that many countries would deliver new targets at the actual COP have until now not materialized. “We are on a highway to climate hell with our foot still on the accelerator”, as UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres put it in his opening speech. 

All is not lost. Firstly, this is what first week often looks like – technical negotiators are bound by detailed instructions from their governments. That’s why the second week’s negotiations are led by environmental and climate ministers, with much more bargaining power and room to maneuver. Perhaps the physical conditions for negotiating will also improve; lack of food, water and meeting rooms and limited opportunities for the civil society to participate is harder to tolerate with ministers from around the world at the venue.  

We also see encouraging progress around Loss&Damage. Some effects of climate change can’t be adapted to; like two-thirds of Pakistan under water or entire island-nations sinking. The EU and other developed parts of the world have argued that this can be handled by regular humanitarian aid, and that governments should remain responsible for the future of their nations. But with this COP the point of no return is passed, with the US downplaying its previous opposition and several countries providing initial funding for it, including Germany, Austria and Denmark.  

Country-wise, this COP has seen the US step up in a much-needed way; the world’s biggest economy needs to lead the way. A strong presence by President Biden, John Kerry, former vice president Al Gore and leader of the House Nancy Pelosi helped, along with the biggest climate bill ever and the promise that “We WILL meet our 2030 target”, contrasting with countries like Sweden that are demanding that others understand its need to temporarily increase emissions. China’s Xi Jinping isn’t coming, he goes to G20 and APEC instead, but his coming bilateral meeting with Biden may well be the boost needed post-COP27.   

The coalitions of the willing are my main hope. Most of what was achieved at last year’s Good COP in Glasgow, was agreements just outside of the formal UN rules where every country has a veto against everything. The Global Methane Pledge, where more than 100 signatories are to cut methane emissions by at least 30% by 2030, is showing impressive progress. The promise to halt and reverse forest loss and land degradation by 2030 has new momentum with Lula as incoming president of Brazil, with its crucial Amazon forest. The main COP26 disappointment, that fossil fuel subsidies are to be “phased down” rather than “phased out”, may even be replaced by stronger words from COP27. If so, this can still be considered a Good Cop. After all, if the Egyptians could build the pyramids, surely they can construct a solid climate agreement for the future. 

Mattias Goldmann