The 2030 Forecast initiative aims to disclose near real-time greenhouse gas emissions data to the public in an effort to increase our collective ability to track progress in achieving the Paris Agreement reduction targets by 2030. Our goal is to democratize access to environmental impact data in order to enable an individual’s or company’s ability to make better informed decisions that will lead to a more sustainable future.

If you want to contribute to this project, please contact us below.

Carbon Emission Levels

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Total weekly greenhouse gas emissions expressed in the percentage actual total weekly emissions are over or below the weekly targets required to achieve Paris Agreement targets by 2030. An arrow pointing up indicates the percentage actual total weekly emissions are above the weekly targets, while an arrow pointing down indicates the percentage actual total weekly emissions are below the weekly targets.

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The importance of access to real-time national greenhouse gas emissions data

We believe that access to near real-time national greenhouse gas emissions data by the public is the starting point for understanding progress towards greenhouse gas emissions reduction goals, in line with the Paris Agreement targets for 2030 (outlined in the latest IPCCC report from April 28, 2022). It is our collective responsibility to access and understand environmental impact data, to motivate the required behavior changes both as individuals and companies that will ensure the sustainable future of our planet.

The initiative does not aim to ensure relevance in the short-term, but to create a foundation where greenhouse gas emissions data becomes part of the daily conversation, much like the the stock or real estate markets. We believe climate literacy can be addressed in the long-term by ensuring public awareness of progress towards targets and goals. Forecasting or measuring progress in reaching greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets should be prioritized by individuals, companies and governments, and we invite you to start understanding how.

If you would like to contribute to improving the accuracy of our data, please contact us here

If you are a news organization or publisher and want to publish country-level greenhouse gas emissions data, please contact us here

Data disclaimer

The 2030 Forecast is an ongoing project, optimizing and updating emissions data continuously. We would like to point out that we are continuously analyzing and adjusting emissions data to accommodate seasonal factors and anomalies (as occuredduring the ongoing pandemic). We are confident in forecasting our progress using near-real-time environmental geo-analytics of emissions data, providing a clear indication of the trajectory of emissions. Most importantly by tracking emissions via satellites with a combination of ground-based data sources, as opposed to relying on outdated self-reported data, we can start to create a more accurate and unbiased assessment.

Find out how you can take action!

Data trans­parency is key to ensuring that we make the right decisions not just in public policy and corporate practices, but also in our everyday life.

Alexandre d’Aspremont
Scientific Director
Kayrros

Methodology

We analyze greenhouse gas emissions based on satellite images and other data sources provided by our partner, Kayrros. Compared to officially reported data, this approach offers the benefit of an increased frequency in the availability of data updates – within days as opposed to months or years – and with a higher level of accuracy. We are building on the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, released in April 2022, which requests urgent action to halve emissions by 2030 and contribute to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals.

Starting from emissions generated between May 2021 and April 2022, we have set a halving target for the end of 2030. Yearly reduction targets are set linearly, and weekly targets are adjusted seasonally. This means that we assume constant decreases from one year to another, but we distribute these across the year, depending on the specifics of each category. For example, power plant emissions strongly increase in the cold season while ground transport produces a higher footprint during the summer. We then compare new data to these targets on a weekly basis, to monitor progress. When weekly targets are missed, the excess emissions accumulate as a “carbon debt”. This debt increases the burden on achieving future targets. Conversely, when weekly emissions totals fall below weekly targets, this leads to a “carbon credit”, reducing the accrued carbon debt and decreasing the burden of achieving future targets.

Our methodology is designed to make the most of available data and improve as more data points become available, and is guided by the belief that everyone on this planet can make a contribution to shaping our climate future.

Find the full methodology from Kayrros here: https://www.kayrros.com/insights/