The 2030 Forecast in NYC

The 2030 Forecast is an ongoing project, optimizing and updating emissions data continuously. We would like to point out that we are continuously analyzing and adjusting emissions data to accommodate seasonal factors and anomalies (as occuredduring the ongoing pandemic). We are confident in forecasting our progress using near-real-time environmental geo-analytics of emissions data, providing a clear indication of the trajectory of emissions. Most importantly by tracking emissions via satellites with a combination of ground-based data sources, as opposed to relying on outdated self-reported data, we can start to create a more accurate and unbiased assessment.

We analyze greenhouse gas emissions based on satellite images and other data sources provided by our partner, Kayrros. Compared to officially reported data, this approach offers the benefit of an increased frequency in the availability of data updates – within days as opposed to months or years – and with a higher level of accuracy. We are building on the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, released in April 2022, which requests urgent action to halve emissions by 2030 and contribute to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals.

Starting from emissions generated between May 2021 and April 2022, we have set a halving target for the end of 2030. Yearly reduction targets are set linearly, and weekly targets are adjusted seasonally. This means that we assume constant decreases from one year to another, but we distribute these across the year, depending on the specifics of each category. For example, power plant emissions strongly increase in the cold season while ground transport produces a higher footprint during the summer. We then compare new data to these targets on a weekly basis, to monitor progress. When weekly targets are missed, the excess emissions accumulate as a “carbon debt”. This debt increases the burden on achieving future targets. Conversely, when weekly emissions totals fall below weekly targets, this leads to a “carbon credit”, reducing the accrued carbon debt and decreasing the burden of achieving future targets.

Our methodology is designed to make the most of available data and improve as more data points become available, and is guided by the belief that everyone on this planet can make a contribution to shaping our climate future.

Find the full methodology from Kayrros here: