The 2030 Forecast in NYC

Doconomy will launch ‘The 2030 Forecast’ in Times Square in Manhattan – a first of its kind climate literacy project that will give the public an estimate of weekly carbon emissions generated in the US, with minimal delay.

Using digital displays in multiple outdoor locations, the tool will show a snapshot of the carbon generated from the US energy, industry, road transportation and domestic aviation sectors, tracking the progress of reaching the reductions required by 2030 to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreement.

The weekly tracking of greenhouse gas level used by ‘The 2030 Forecast’ is based on satellite images and data analysis from Doconomy’s partner, Kayrros. Continuously updated national-level emissions data is key to realizing our progress of achieving the 2030 reduction targets. For the first time, emissions data is tracked and released on a weekly basis – providing a platform ensuring the necessary shift towards a more sustainable world.

The importance of access to real-time national greenhouse gas emissions data

The 2030 Forecast initiative aims to disclose near real-time greenhouse gas emissions data to the public in an effort to increase our collective ability to track progress in achieving the Paris Agreement reduction targets by 2030. Our goal is to democratize access to environmental impact data in order to enable an individual’s or company’s ability to make better informed decisions that will lead to a more sustainable future.

If you want to contribute to this project, please contact us below.

Data disclaimer

The 2030 Forecast is an ongoing project, optimizing and updating emissions data continuously. We would like to point out that we are continuously analyzing and adjusting emissions data to accommodate seasonal factors and anomalies (as occuredduring the ongoing pandemic). We are confident in forecasting our progress using near-real-time environmental geo-analytics of emissions data, providing a clear indication of the trajectory of emissions. Most importantly by tracking emissions via satellites with a combination of ground-based data sources, as opposed to relying on outdated self-reported data, we can start to create a more accurate and unbiased assessment.

Methodology

We analyze greenhouse gas emissions based on satellite images and other data sources provided by our partner, Kayrros. Compared to officially reported data, this approach offers the benefit of an increased frequency in the availability of data updates – within days as opposed to months or years – and with a higher level of accuracy. We are building on the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, released in April 2022, which requests urgent action to halve emissions by 2030 and contribute to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals.

Starting from emissions generated between May 2021 and April 2022, we have set a halving target for the end of 2030. Yearly reduction targets are set linearly, and weekly targets are adjusted seasonally. This means that we assume constant decreases from one year to another, but we distribute these across the year, depending on the specifics of each category. For example, power plant emissions strongly increase in the cold season while ground transport produces a higher footprint during the summer. We then compare new data to these targets on a weekly basis, to monitor progress. When weekly targets are missed, the excess emissions accumulate as a “carbon debt”. This debt increases the burden on achieving future targets. Conversely, when weekly emissions totals fall below weekly targets, this leads to a “carbon credit”, reducing the accrued carbon debt and decreasing the burden of achieving future targets.

Our methodology is designed to make the most of available data and improve as more data points become available, and is guided by the belief that everyone on this planet can make a contribution to shaping our climate future.

Find the full methodology from Kayrros here:

Contact

Andres Vergara

Head of Marketing
10.91 tonnes CO₂e →0%(2022)

Johan Pihl

CINO & Founder
24.63 tonnes CO₂e ↓4%(2022)

News